12 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2022
Risks and Uncertainties [Abstract]  

(6) Risk


(a) Investment Related Risk


The NAV of BDRY’s shares relates directly to the value of the futures portfolio, cash and cash equivalents held by BDRY. Fluctuations in the prices of these assets could materially adversely affect the value and performance of an investment in BDRY’s shares. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; all or substantially all of an investment in BDRY could be lost.


The NAV of BDRY’s shares relates directly to the value of futures investments held by BDRY which are materially impacted by fluctuations in changes in spot charter rates. Charter rates for dry bulk vessels are volatile and have declined significantly since their historic highs and may remain at low levels or decrease further in the future. 


Futures and options contracts have expiration dates. Before or upon the expiration of a contract, BDRY may be required to enter into a replacement contract that is priced higher or that have less favorable terms than the contract being replaced (see “Negative Roll Risk,” below). The Freight Futures market settles in cash against published indices, so there is no physical delivery against the futures contracts.


Similar to other futures contracts, the Freight Futures curve shape could be either in “contango” (where the futures curve is upward sloping with next futures price higher than the current one) or “backwardation” (where each the next futures price is lower than the current one). Contango curves are generally characterized by negative roll cost, as the expiring contract value is lower that the next prompt contract value, assuming the same lot size. That means there could be losses incurred when the contracts are rolled each period (“Negative Roll Risk”) and such losses are independent of the Freight Futures price level.


As of late February, the ongoing conflict between Russia in Ukraine has developed into a war, posing an increasing risk for global economic growth. Major economic sanctions against Russia are having a considerable impact on oil and gas prices, given the dependence of the EU on oil and gas exports out of Russia combined with limited spare capacity of such commodities globally. Energy prices have increased significantly, leading to major inflationary pressures in the major developed countries that rely heavily on oil and gas exports out of Russia. In addition, the combined Russia/Ukraine region account for approximately one quarter of global grain production, one of the main cargoes transported by dry bulk vessels, while coal and iron ore exports out of the region have also been reduced. The above factors can have a material negative impact on demand for dry bulk transportation, while slower economic growth could also negatively affect demand for dry bulk commodities in the rest of the world, leading to lower dry bulk freight rates.


The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine is having a profound impact on global commodities prices including grain and coal, two of the most important commodities for dry bulk shipping. Given the importance of the region in export volumes for both grains and coal, a prolong stoppage could lead to significantly lower freight rates and thus a decline in freight futures prices and a decline in the value of the Fund. Although coal supplies could potentially be sourced from elsewhere partly mitigating the negative impact of the lost volumes, global grain production capacity is limited, and thus the impact of the lost volumes could not be easily mitigated. In addition, the recent geopolitical turmoil has led to an increase in government protectionism when it comes to commodities, and if such a trend continues, it could lead to lower bulk commodities trading globally over the long term. The impact of such a scenario on dry bulk shipping will be negative, leading to lower spot rates and as a result lower freight futures prices and a decline in the value of the Fund.


(b) Liquidity Risk


In certain circumstances, such as the disruption of the orderly markets for the futures contracts or Financial Instruments in which the Fund invests, the Fund might not be able to dispose of certain holdings quickly or at prices that represent what the market value may have been in an orderly market. Futures and option positions cannot always be liquidated at the desired price. It is difficult to execute a trade at a specific price when there is a relatively small volume of buy and sell orders in a market. A market disruption can also make it difficult to liquidate a position. The large size of the positions that the Fund may acquire increases the risk of illiquidity both by making its positions more difficult to liquidate and by potentially increasing losses while trying to do so. Such a situation may prevent the Fund from limiting losses, realizing gains or achieving a high correlation with the Benchmark Portfolio.


(c) Natural Disaster/Epidemic Risk


Natural or environmental disasters, such as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis and other severe weather-related phenomena generally, and widespread disease, including pandemics and epidemics (for example, the novel coronavirus COVID-19), have been and can be highly disruptive to economies and markets and have recently led, and may continue to lead, to increased market volatility and significant market losses. Such natural disaster and health crises could exacerbate political, social, and economic risks previously mentioned, and result in significant breakdowns, delays, shutdowns, social isolation, and other disruptions to important global, local and regional supply chains affected, with potential corresponding results on the operating performance of the Fund and its investments. A climate of uncertainty and panic, including the contagion of infectious viruses or diseases, may adversely affect global, regional, and local economies and reduce the availability of potential investment opportunities, and increases the difficulty of performing due diligence and modeling market conditions, potentially reducing the accuracy of financial projections. Under these circumstances, the Fund may have difficulty achieving its investment objective which may adversely impact performance. Further, such events can be highly disruptive to economies and markets, significantly disrupt the operations of individual companies (including, but not limited to, the Fund’s Sponsor and third party service providers), sectors, industries, markets, securities and commodity exchanges, currencies, interest and inflation rates, credit ratings, investor sentiment, and other factors affecting the value of the Fund’s investments. These factors can cause substantial market volatility. exchange trading suspensions and closures and can impact the ability of the Fund to complete redemptions and otherwise affect Fund performance and Fund trading in the secondary market. A widespread crisis may also affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the current time. How long such events will last and whether they will continue or recur cannot be predicted. Impacts from these events could have significant impact on the Fund’s performance, resulting in losses to the Fund.


(d) Risk that Current Assumptions and Expectations Could Become Outdated as a Result of Global Economic Shocks


The onset of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused significant shocks to global financial markets and economies, with many governments taking extreme actions to slow and contain the spread of COVID-19. These actions have had, and likely will continue to have, a severe economic impact on global economies as economic activity in some instances has essentially ceased at times. Financial markets across the globe are experiencing severe distress at least equal to what was experienced during the global financial crisis in 2008. The global economic shocks being experienced as of the date hereof may cause the underlying assumptions and expectations of the Fund to become outdated quickly or inaccurate, resulting in significant losses.