Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

U.S. Public Finance Insurance

U.S. public finance insured transactions consist of municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of U.S. political subdivisions, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, housing authorities and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities that finance projects that serve a substantial public purpose. The Company estimates future losses by using probability-weighted cash flow scenarios that are customized to each insured transaction. Future loss estimates consider debt service due for each insured transaction, which includes par outstanding and interest due, as well as recoveries for such payments, if any. Gross par outstanding for capital appreciation bonds represents the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy.

MBIA Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited)

Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves (continued)

PREPA

In formulating loss reserves and recoveries for PREPA, estimates in the Company’s probability-weighted scenarios include assumptions related to the nature, value, and timing of net cash flows considering the following: environmental, economic, and political developments on the island; litigation and ongoing discussions with creditors and obligors on the Title III proceedings; contractual debt service payments; any existing settlement agreements or proposals and deviations from these proposals; the remediation strategy for insured obligations that have defaulted or are expected to default; and values of other obligations of the issuer. Refer to “Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties” for further information on the Company’s PREPA exposure.

International and Structured Finance Insurance

The international and structured finance insurance segment’s case basis reserves and insurance loss recoveries recorded in accordance with GAAP do not include reserves and recoveries on consolidated VIEs, since they are eliminated in consolidation.

RMBS Case Basis Reserves (Financial Guarantees)

The Company’s RMBS case basis reserves primarily relate to RMBS backed by alternative A-paper and subprime mortgage loans. The Company calculated RMBS case basis reserves as of June 30, 2024 using a process called the Roll Rate Methodology (“Roll Rate Methodology”). The Roll Rate Methodology is a multi-step process using databases of loan level information, proprietary internal cash flow models, and commercially available models to estimate potential losses and recoveries on insured bonds. Roll Rate is defined as the probability that current loans become delinquent and subsequently default and loans in the delinquent pipeline are charged-off or liquidated. The loss reserve estimates are based on a probability-weighted average of potential scenarios of loan losses. Additional data used for both first and second-lien loans include historic averages of deal specific voluntary prepayment rates, forward projections of the secured overnight financing rate, and historic averages of deal-specific loss severities. Where applicable, the Company factors in termination scenarios when clean up calls are imminent.

In calculating ultimate cumulative losses for RMBS, the Company estimates the amount of first-lien loans that are expected to be liquidated in the future through foreclosure or short sale, and estimates, the amount of second-lien loans that are expected to be charged-off (deemed uncollectible by servicers of the transactions). The time to liquidation for a defaulted loan is specific to the loan’s delinquency bucket.

For all RMBS transactions, cash flow models consider allocations and other structural aspects and claims against MBIA Corp.’s insurance policy consistent with such policy’s terms and conditions. The estimated net claims from the procedure above are then discounted using a risk-free rate to a net present value reflecting MBIA’s general obligation to pay claims over time and not on an accelerated basis.

The Company monitors RMBS portfolio performance on a monthly basis against projected performance, reviewing delinquencies, roll rates, and prepayment rates (including voluntary and involuntary). However, loan performance remains difficult to predict and losses may exceed expectations. In the event of a material deviation in actual performance from projected performance, the Company would increase or decrease the case basis reserves accordingly and re-evaluate its assumptions.

RMBS Recoveries

The Company’s RMBS recoveries relate to structural features within the trust structures that allow for the Company to be reimbursed for prior claims paid. These reimbursements for specific trusts include recoveries that are generated from the excess spread of the transactions. Excess spread within insured RMBS securitizations is the difference between interest inflows on mortgage loan collateral and interest outflows on the insured RMBS notes.

MBIA Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited)

Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves (continued)

Summary of Loss and LAE Reserves and Recoveries

Changes in Loss and LAE Reserves

Loss and LAE reserves represent the Company’s estimate of future claims and LAE payments, net of any future recoveries of such payments. The following table presents changes in the Company’s loss and LAE reserves for the six months ended June 30, 2024. Changes in loss and LAE reserves, with the exception of loss and LAE payments, are recorded in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses in the Company’s consolidated statements of operations. As of June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the weighted average risk-free rates used to discount the Company’s loss reserves (claim liability) were 4.47% and 3.97%, respectively. LAE reserves are generally expected to be settled within a one-year period and are not discounted. As of June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company’s gross loss and LAE reserves included $15 million and $8 million, respectively related to LAE.

The increase in the Company’s loss and LAE reserves was primarily due to assumption changes for National's PREPA reserves. Refer to “Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties” for further information on PREPA. In addition, National established reserves on a U.S. Public Finance lease-backed transaction.

Changes in Insurance Loss Recoverable

Insurance loss recoverable represents the Company’s estimate of expected recoveries on paid claims and LAE. The Company recognizes potential recoveries on paid claims based on the probability-weighted net cash inflows present valued at applicable risk-free rates as of the measurement date. The following table presents changes in the Company’s insurance loss recoverable for the six months ended June 30, 2024. Changes in insurance loss recoverable with the exception of collections, are recorded in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses in the Company’s consolidated statements of operations.

MBIA Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited)

Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves (continued)

The decrease in the Company’s insurance loss recoverable reflected in the preceding table was primarily due updating PREPA recoveries on paid claims.

Loss and LAE Activity

For the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, the incurred loss primarily related to PREPA as discussed above. In addition, the six months ended June 30, 2024 incurred loss included reserves on a U.S. public finance lease-backed transaction.

For the three and six months ended June 30, 2023, the incurred loss primarily related to updating PREPA scenarios to reflect the latest information about bondholder elections and the estimated value of recoveries under National's then settlement agreement, which resulted in lower net expected recoveries. Changes in scenario assumptions included changing the effective date of a settlement and reflected the potential that the Company received less reimbursement of claims, partially offset by an increase in the market value of the bonds and a contingent value instrument ("CVI") expected to be received upon settlement. In addition, the incurred loss included the termination of a first-lien RMBS insured transaction and accretion. This incurred loss was partially offset by an increase in risk-free rates, which caused future reserves, net of recoveries, to decline, primarily on the Company's first-lien RMBS portfolio.

Costs associated with remediating insured obligations assigned to the Company’s surveillance categories are recorded as LAE and are included in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses on the Company’s consolidated statements of operations. For the three months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, gross LAE related to remediating insured obligations was $9 million and $3 million, respectively. For the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, gross LAE related to remediating insured obligations was $11 million and $5 million, respectively.

Surveillance Categories

MBIA Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited)

Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves (continued)