Report of Directors Financial Review Risk Report - Consensus central scenario (Details) - Consensus central scenario
|
12 Months Ended |
Dec. 31, 2025 |
Dec. 31, 2024 |
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
2.60%
|
|
| Forecast period |
5 years
|
|
| UK |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
1.40%
|
1.50%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5-year average |
4.70%
|
4.50%
|
| House price growth, 5-year average |
2.50%
|
3.20%
|
| Inflation rate, 5-year average |
2.20%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5-year average |
3.60%
|
3.90%
|
| UK | Less than 1 year |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.10%
|
1.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.90%
|
4.90%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
1.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.50%
|
2.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.50%
|
4.20%
|
| UK | One to two years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.40%
|
1.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.70%
|
4.70%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.80%
|
3.80%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.40%
|
3.90%
|
| UK | 2–3 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.80%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.70%
|
4.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.30%
|
4.60%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.50%
|
3.80%
|
| UK | 3–4 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.60%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.70%
|
4.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.70%
|
3.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.70%
|
3.70%
|
| UK | 4–5 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.60%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.70%
|
4.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
2.70%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.80%
|
3.70%
|
| US |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
2.00%
|
1.80%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5-year average |
4.20%
|
4.20%
|
| House price growth, 5-year average |
2.40%
|
3.00%
|
| Inflation rate, 5-year average |
2.40%
|
2.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5-year average |
3.30%
|
3.70%
|
| US | Less than 1 year |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.40%
|
4.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.10%
|
4.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.90%
|
2.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.40%
|
4.10%
|
| US | One to two years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
1.60%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.30%
|
4.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
3.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
2.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.10%
|
3.70%
|
| US | 2–3 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
1.60%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.10%
|
4.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.70%
|
2.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.20%
|
3.70%
|
| US | 3–4 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
1.80%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.10%
|
4.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.20%
|
2.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.40%
|
3.60%
|
| US | 4–5 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.10%
|
4.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.20%
|
2.60%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.60%
|
3.60%
|
| Hong Kong |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
2.30%
|
2.60%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5-year average |
3.20%
|
3.20%
|
| House price growth, 5-year average |
1.80%
|
2.10%
|
| Inflation rate, 5-year average |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5-year average |
3.70%
|
4.10%
|
| Hong Kong | Less than 1 year |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
1.70%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.60%
|
3.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.50%
|
(0.50%)
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.80%
|
1.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.80%
|
4.50%
|
| Hong Kong | One to two years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
1.80%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.40%
|
3.70%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
2.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.50%
|
4.10%
|
| Hong Kong | 2–3 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
3.50%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.10%
|
3.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.50%
|
3.00%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.60%
|
4.00%
|
| Hong Kong | 3–4 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
3.10%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.00%
|
3.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.70%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.80%
|
4.00%
|
| Hong Kong | 4–5 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
2.70%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.00%
|
2.90%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.70%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.30%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
4.00%
|
| Mainland China |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
4.00%
|
3.90%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5-year average |
5.10%
|
5.20%
|
| House price growth, 5-year average |
1.90%
|
0.70%
|
| Inflation rate, 5-year average |
1.30%
|
1.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5-year average |
3.10%
|
3.10%
|
| Mainland China | Less than 1 year |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.40%
|
4.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.20%
|
5.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
(1.60%)
|
(5.90%)
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.70%
|
0.30%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.00%
|
2.90%
|
| Mainland China | One to two years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.20%
|
3.70%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.20%
|
5.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
(0.70%)
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
1.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.00%
|
2.90%
|
| Mainland China | 2–3 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.00%
|
4.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.10%
|
5.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.50%
|
3.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.40%
|
1.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.10%
|
3.00%
|
| Mainland China | 3–4 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.80%
|
3.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.00%
|
5.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.40%
|
4.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.70%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.10%
|
3.20%
|
| Mainland China | 4–5 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.80%
|
3.70%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.00%
|
5.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
2.90%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.60%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.20%
|
3.30%
|
| France |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
1.20%
|
1.20%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5-year average |
7.50%
|
7.20%
|
| House price growth, 5-year average |
3.70%
|
3.60%
|
| Inflation rate, 5-year average |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5-year average |
2.20%
|
2.00%
|
| France | Less than 1 year |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.90%
|
0.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.60%
|
7.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.30%
|
2.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.40%
|
1.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
1.90%
|
2.10%
|
| France | One to two years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
0.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.60%
|
7.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
5.00%
|
4.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.70%
|
1.60%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.00%
|
1.80%
|
| France | 2–3 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.30%
|
1.40%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.50%
|
7.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.10%
|
4.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.10%
|
2.00%
|
| France | 3–4 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.30%
|
1.50%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.40%
|
7.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.10%
|
3.80%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.30%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.30%
|
2.00%
|
| France | 4–5 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.30%
|
1.40%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.40%
|
7.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
3.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.50%
|
2.10%
|
| UAE |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
3.90%
|
3.90%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5-year average |
2.40%
|
2.60%
|
| House price growth, 5-year average |
3.10%
|
4.20%
|
| Inflation rate, 5-year average |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5-year average |
3.40%
|
3.80%
|
| UAE | Less than 1 year |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.70%
|
4.40%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.50%
|
2.70%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
5.80%
|
9.30%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.50%
|
4.10%
|
| UAE | One to two years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.10%
|
4.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.40%
|
2.60%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.20%
|
5.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.10%
|
3.80%
|
| UAE | 2–3 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.80%
|
3.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.40%
|
2.60%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
3.60%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
1.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.30%
|
3.70%
|
| UAE | 3–4 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.50%
|
3.60%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.40%
|
2.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
1.80%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.40%
|
3.60%
|
| UAE | 4–5 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.50%
|
3.60%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.40%
|
2.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
1.30%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
1.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.60%
|
3.60%
|
| Mexico |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5-year average |
2.00%
|
1.50%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5-year average |
3.20%
|
3.50%
|
| House price growth, 5-year average |
4.40%
|
4.90%
|
| Inflation rate, 5-year average |
3.50%
|
3.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5-year average |
7.50%
|
8.90%
|
| Mexico | Less than 1 year |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.30%
|
0.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.20%
|
3.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.80%
|
7.60%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.70%
|
5.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
7.00%
|
9.40%
|
| Mexico | One to two years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
1.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.20%
|
3.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.50%
|
4.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.60%
|
3.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
7.20%
|
8.80%
|
| Mexico | 2–3 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
1.70%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.20%
|
3.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.40%
|
4.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.50%
|
3.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
7.50%
|
8.80%
|
| Mexico | 3–4 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
1.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.10%
|
3.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.30%
|
4.00%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.40%
|
3.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
7.70%
|
8.90%
|
| Mexico | 4–5 years |
|
|
| Disclosure of sensitivity analysis for actuarial assumptions [abstract] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.10%
|
3.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.20%
|
4.00%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.40%
|
3.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
7.90%
|
8.90%
|