ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES |
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| ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES | ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES The following table presents ACL activity by portfolio segment.
(1)Includes charge-offs of $23 million on certain commercial loans previously charged off by Cadence, which were written up to the unpaid principal balance at acquisition and then immediately written off as required by purchase accounting. At March 31, 2026, the ACL was $3.4 billion, a $625 million increase compared to December 31, 2025. The increase in the ACL was driven by the ACL recorded for loans acquired in the Cadence transaction in addition to organic loan and lease growth. The ACL coverage ratio at March 31, 2026 is reflective of the current macroeconomic forecast and changes in various risk profiles intended to capture uncertainty not addressed within the quantitative reserve. The commercial ACL was $2.4 billion at March 31, 2026, a $527 million increase compared to December 31, 2025, with the increase driven by $438 million of ALLL recorded for commercial loans acquired in the Cadence transaction, as well as organic growth in commercial loans and leases during the first quarter of 2026. The consumer ACL was $965 million at March 31, 2026, an increase of $98 million from December 31, 2025, with the increase due to $129 million of ALLL recorded for consumer loans acquired in the Cadence transaction. The baseline economic scenario used to estimate our March 31, 2026 ACL assumes continued tariff uncertainty, but reflects marginal improved performance of the U.S. economy in the near term with minimal change in the overall outlook. In this scenario, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.5% throughout 2026 before declining slightly in 2027. The Federal Reserve restarts rate cuts in 2026, resulting in an average federal funds rate of 3.2% for 2026. The inflation outlook stabilizes slightly as the impacts of tariffs and other trade policies moderate, and near-term inflation declines but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target throughout 2026. After slow GDP growth to end 2025, GDP growth accelerates in the first quarter of 2026 but is expected to decline over the remainder of 2026 and remain below 2% for all of 2027. The economic scenarios used included elevated levels of economic uncertainty including the impact of specific challenges in the commercial real estate industry, recent inflation levels, the U.S. labor market, the expected path of interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, and the impact of significant conflicts on-going around the world. Given the uncertainty associated with key economic scenario assumptions, the March 31, 2026 ACL included a general reserve that consists of various risk profile components to address uncertainty not measured within the quantitative transaction reserve.
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